Democrats might be in meltdown mode right now over their recent shutdown surrender, but the top White House political official warned Republicans that they shouldn’t expect the other party’s dysfunction to help them in next year’s midterm elections.
“Truthfully, I think the Republican Party’s success in the midterms will rise and fall on its own actions between now and then, irrespective of what the Democrats do,” said James Blair, the deputy chief of staff overseeing political and legislative affairs. Blair spoke with the Playbook Deep Dive podcast less than a week after 10 members of the Senate Democratic Caucus joined with Republicans to advance a GOP-written spending bill and avoid a shutdown. What ensued was an explosion of recriminations aired inside closed-door party meetings, on donor calls and at town halls where angry Democrats have demanded their leaders put up a stronger fight against President Donald Trump. “There are some patterns with midterms: Our voters are satisfied in many ways,” Blair said. “Theirs are very upset, so in certain ways the vote motivation right now is on the other side because they’re running angry and riled up. … That, you know, can be a challenge politically at the ballot box.”
He said the best thing that congressional Republicans could do to help themselves in 2026 would be to pass the Trump legislative program of tax cuts, border security enhancements and energy deregulation.
“I think if the House and Senate [can] come together and pass legislation that is widely popular, which is the Trump agenda, which everyone voted for, which outperforms the generic Republican in the swing states and the swing districts in the House, then I think we’ll be rewarded at the ballot box,” Blair said.
“If Congress tries to pass a circa 2008-to-2012 or ’14 Republican agenda rather than sort of a 2024 Republican coalition agenda, then they’ll probably be punished at the ballot box for it,” he added.
Blair also continued to heap praise on Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who has borne the brunt of the Democratic backlash over last week’s spending capitulation. He echoed Trump’s own praise of the New York Democrat.
“I would quote the president: Schumer had guts, did the right thing,” he said. “It’s probably tough on him. Now they’re talking about primarying him and removing him from leadership. … That’s pretty brutal.”
“I think they’re in the wilderness,” he continued, saying Democrats are looking for new leadership, but “it’s hard to find, because at the end of the day, their agenda is unpopular.”
